Saturday, February 20, 2016
The Demographics Favor Donald Trump
Take a good look, this is what is presently running against Donald J. Trump. (I'm discounting both Kasich and Carson as irretrievably marginal)
Think! From exist polling data in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, we know who is drawing from what demographic. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio - the only competition left to Trump have the polar opposite difficulties.
(1) Cruz's support is narrow and deep, passionately held, populated only by religious fanatics and cultists. It is almost identical to support commanded by Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum in the last election cycle, a very narrow Evangelical or Christian Right support which cannot transfer to national support. Which cannot translate to numbers to win the nomination much less the general election. (Huuuuuugely damaged by Trump's incursion into his Evangelical base.)
(2) Rubio is drawing votes from all across the demographic spectrum, JUST LIKE TRUMP - but mostly dispassionate last minute deciders, but a very "shallow" non-passionate support, very few dedicated supporters.
(3) Where Trump's cross-demographic support is very deep, very passionate and very dedicated.
Face it, there is no one left but Kasich as an establishment candidate and he will NEVER catch on in this anti-establishment year and Carson who is so wounded, he will never recover.
So, if Cruz's support is a block that cannot win the nomination, and Rubio's support is shallow and dispassionate - GAME OVER. It will take some time before the EGOS to admit it, but GAME OVER - IF, IF, IF, Donald Trump and his Revolutionary Movement double down and grant no space.
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